Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1058.985383 1215.837402 1396.324507 1621.298216 1896.926272 2227.192551 2.658375e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 818.684795 1009.533295 1251.800373 1588.930636 2057.695466 2705.393509 3.704278e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 714.143090 920.753354 1199.976479 1618.109152 2253.346902 3228.761711 4.946033e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 647.565105 865.447747 1175.395921 1669.238033 2480.152612 3852.132812 6.600986e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 587.914397 808.252418 1134.771430 1682.113886 2641.937667 4410.659141 8.408658e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 531.750317 747.485958 1077.751189 1654.698721 2723.513175 4844.129541 1.019481e+04
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 497.336938 714.693259 1058.440299 1684.752213 2913.540807 5554.472408 1.310914e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 452.522688 660.338416 996.577500 1627.869101 2919.317636 5866.831282 1.517851e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 416.457490 616.273127 946.412488 1583.811317 2940.484049 6223.343733 1.769749e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 384.459905 575.846451 897.872483 1535.084040 2940.340005 6528.168173 2.034474e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 374.421427 570.938173 910.693518 1608.437077 3233.681877 7752.487602 2.824116e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 362.008148 560.667245 912.392899 1659.020166 3486.998261 8995.999240 3.848881e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 346.427401 544.831212 904.500108 1693.891130 3728.472674 10411.995121 5.378523e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 324.590170 516.245286 869.769962 1665.218518 3797.123837 11291.654501 6.858691e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 311.518293 502.246080 861.604810 1695.440823 4043.118544 13059.634155 1.001019e+05
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 302.006075 493.882850 863.564087 1749.974649 4383.585515 15569.269693 1.610322e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 289.463381 478.717961 849.872421 1763.664923 4601.549072 17741.557303 2.461366e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 274.311865 457.396872 821.156655 1734.482445 4667.269272 19192.817619 3.447457e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 265.509785 447.676853 816.097013 1766.476350 4964.683444 22435.284652 6.219048e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 250.178180 424.080957 778.802800 1705.929937 4898.779761 23231.832575 8.303394e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 237.091704 404.142613 747.949963 1659.064250 4874.916411 24371.158548 1.187106e+06
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 224.630850 384.730850 716.770501 1607.262073 4818.441858 25252.417696 1.679019e+06
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 222.144582 385.216993 730.269379 1685.256258 5333.035917 31908.287107 6.578055e+06